2025 Free Agency Preview: More Like A Trade Deadline?

With hardly any time to breathe between the two events, today the NHL kicks off its annual free agency frenzy just a few days after the Entry Draft. As with the draft, the Pittsburgh Penguins figure to be active, but not necessarily in the familiar sense of looking through the market to find replacements for departed players, although that will likely play some part. Rather, by most accounts the Penguins will be looking to potentially wheel and deal some of the higher ticket players on their roster not named Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Kris Letang, as Pittsburgh will seemingly seek to cut salary and add more assets for the future. For their part in adding to the mass of free agents on the market, the Penguins will be letting their two remaining NHL UFAs, Matt Nieto and Matt Grzelcyk, as well as the others in the minor leagues depart, so it stands to reason that general manager Kyle Dubas will likely spend some of the nearly $20M remaining on some replacements over the next week.

But the big question for Pittsburgh is which of Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson, and the rest of their players signed to large contracts with term remaining will still be with the team by training camp in September? With next summer’s draft figuring to be a crucial one (with another generational talent in Gavin McKenna at the top of the list), the Penguins will be one of many teams hoping to steer the lottery in their favor, and the best way to do that is to have the weakest possible roster. Moving any (or all) of the names listed above would likely put Pittsburgh in a better position in terms of a higher draft pick, certainly higher than where they were in last week’s draft, and any pick in the top five would give their impending rebuild a major shot in the arm. Drafting McKenna—oh, the vitriol towards the Penguins would be immense and delightful!

Needless to say, the bigger ticket names out there in the unrestricted free agent market (like Mitch Marner, Dmitri Orlov, Aaron Ekblad, Ivan Provorov, Brock Boeser, and Nikolaj Ehlers) will very likely not end up in Pittsburgh. If Kyle Dubas is spending money, it will likely be on depth guys, reclamation projects, the low-risk-high-reward type of guys who would probably benefit from a change of scenery if nothing else. If any of Rust, Rakell, or Karlsson are gone, chances are the Penguins will be getting their replacements in that trade, so I don’t expect Dubas to have to be in on the early chaos of overspending on those prime players. There is also the outside chance of snatching up some unqualified RFAs or even offer sheeting someone and seeing where that goes. But I think, moreso than most years in the recent past, this summer’s free agency frenzy for Pittsburgh and their fans will be mostly as casual observers and less attention will be paid.

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