If you were a Pittsburgh Penguins fan, and if in September you fell into a coma, and if you only just woke up this past week, you probably would have wondered to yourself, “How the hell did the Penguins make the playoffs?” And I assure you there is a modest number of other people who follow hockey who haven’t been in this hypothetical coma over the past seven months and are still scratching their heads trying to figure that out as well. After all, this Pittsburgh team went into the preseason with a grim prognosis, at least in terms of their Stanley Cup aspirations. There might have been some positive feelings about what was to come in June, after the Stanley Cup Finals, in terms of a first round draft pick, but there were very few people who anticipated the Penguins being in the postseason at all. (In fact, from the results of my preseason prediction polls, only 4 people out of 25 respondents believed Pittsburgh would make the playoffs.)
So, here are the Penguins, back in the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Not just in the playoffs, but second in a Metropolitan Division that has been quite tumultuous over the past several years. And as a special treat, they’ve been paired up against their intrastate rivals, the Philadelphia Flyers, who are also returning to the playoffs since the COVID-19 pandemic-affected 2020 playoffs. Not that it would have been any less interesting to have drawn the Washington Capitals, New York Islanders, or Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, but Pittsburgh/Philadelphia series is always more interesting. The two teams have met in the playoffs seven times, with Pittsburgh holding a narrow 4-3 advantage; the most recent time they met was in 2018, with the Penguins coming out ahead 4-2. The season series this year also saw Pittsburgh edging ahead of the Flyers, with the Penguins notching a 2-0-2 record.
To make the playoffs, the Flyers had to overcome being nine points out of the second Wild Card spot as of March 10. Going back further to February 3 (my birthday, coincidentally), Philadelphia had the third-best record in the NHL; over the last 28 games of the season, they had a 19-7-2 record, topped only by the Atlantic Division and Metropolitan Division leaders, the Buffalo Sabres and the Carolina Hurricanes, and just ahead of the Central Division-leading Colorado Avalanche. That’s no small feat for a team that didn’t have a skater in the top fifty in points and an offense which overall was below average, so naturally the Flyers’ success stemmed from its defensive performance. Over that same span of 28 games, Philadelphia allowed the second-fewest goals-per-game in the NHL. They also allowed the fifth-fewest shots against per game, which tracks with their performance for the whole season.
If I had to pick an MVP then for this Flyers team, it would have to be starting goaltender Dan Vladar. Although he was arguably the weakest of the four potential starting goaltenders Pittsburgh could have faced in this first round series, since February 3 Vladar has been the second-best goaltender in the League in goals saved above average at even strength. It helps that Philadelphia allowed the sixth-least expected goals against as well, but if you don’t have a good goaltender to back that up, it won’t matter how good your defense is. So while the Flyers play well as a unit defensively, if they don’t get a strong performance down the stretch from Vladar, they definitely wouldn’t have made the playoffs.
As I said before, offensively Philadelphia is nothing to write home about, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have good forwards. The Flyers didn’t take a lot of shots this season (seventh-fewest) and shot quality wasn’t great either (tenth-lowest expected goals for per 60 minutes), but their team shooting percentage was a sneaky eleventh-best in the League. Among players with over 500 minutes played, Philadelphia had ten skaters over the League average in shooting percentage, just one less than the Penguins. Down the stretch it was the young guys making the difference for the Flyers, as Owen Tippett, Noah Cates and Matvei Michkov were 1-2-3 for the Philadelphia, but the Penguins cannot forget Travis Konecny and Trevor Zegras are also very dangerous shooters.
The one key difference that stands out to me as to why the Pittsburgh Penguins are in the playoffs this year as opposed to the last few years is that pretty much every player on the roster met or exceeded expectations. You can talk about having a different coaching staff and maybe that’s part of why this has happened, but one way or another not only did the guys expected to produce do so for the most part (apologies to Kris Letang), but the supporting cast really stepped up as well. Anthony Mantha had a huge year. Tommy Novak had a big bounce-back year. Ben Kindel and Justin Brazeau had very good starts, and Egor Chinakov had a great second half. Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea have been pleasant surprises. And how sneaky good and important has Blake Lizotte been? All of those guys need to continue meeting and exceeding expectations for the Penguins to have a chance at a long playoff run this spring.
LGP