A Plethora of Preseason Penguins Prediction Polls, 2024-25 Edition

This was a fun little appetizer last preseason, so I thought I would do it again! I wanted to get an idea of where the fanbase’s minds are at about the Pittsburgh Penguins, while taking a look back at last year’s plethora along the way to see how right or wrong we all were. Let’s get right to it then!

Will the Penguins make the playoffs?

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(Last season’s poll result: Yes, 94%; in fact: no)

Well, we were largely an optimistic bunch when we were looking at the team heading into training camp, I think that makes some sense: fans generally want to hope for the best at the very beginning of the season. And the Penguins did not miss the playoffs by much last season, just three points, although that was two more points than the year prior. I am expecting a less optimistic result from the respondents this time around, but it will be interesting to see just how much less.

Where will the Penguins end up in the Metropolitan Division standings?

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(Last season’s poll result: Third, fourth, or fifth, 85%; in fact: fifth)

It’s mostly for continuity’s sake that I’m keeping the answers the same, but also because I feel like the ranges work better in getting a broader idea of where people feel the Penguins would sit if they did make the playoffs. The spirit of the question is to get an idea of how favorable the Penguins would be in a given playoff series, and the sense I get from the results is that Pittsburgh would’ve been the underdog had they made the playoffs. Last season only 13% of respondents felt Pittsburgh would be first or second in the division, while just one person felt they would be in the bottom three.

Who will be the team's MVP?

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(Last season’s poll result: Sidney Crosby, 85%; in fact: Sidney Crosby)

I had a few more options than this last year, but these three players accounted for all but one of the votes last year (Kris Letang got that last vote) so it seemed safe to trim the list to them. It stands to reason that, should he remain healthy and productive all season, Crosby will secure his thirteenth most valuable player award, which would be the most in team history. If he’s not the team’s MVP, I suspect the Penguins will have been in bad shape because of it unless someone else surprisingly outperforms Crosby (looking mainly at the goaltending).

Compared to the rest of the NHL, how well does the goaltending have to play for the Penguins to be serious Cup contenders?

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(Last season’s poll result: Top ten, 56%; in fact: Around average, which wasn’t good enough)

I’ve made a couple of changes to this question. First, I changed the question from specifically Tristan Jarry to the goaltending in general for a number of reasons, including whether or not Jarry makes it past the trade deadline this season. I also simplified the last answer to “Doesn’t matter” because last year it included “they would be serious Cup contenders with or without [the goaltending],” which sounded more presumptive than I probably should have made it. I have serious doubts that Pittsburgh would get below average goaltending and still be serious Cup contenders. The truth of the matter is that by not specifying a particular metric or set of metrics to judge this question, it is leaving a lot up for interpretation and foresight. In fact I feel like the Penguins goaltending was generally around average for the entire season, which obviously wasn’t good enough.

How hot is Mike Sullivan's seat?

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Here’s a new poll, and one that probably doesn’t require much context but I’ll provide it anyway. Only one head coach in the NHL has been in his role for longer than Mike Sullivan, and that’s Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper. As of the end of last season Cooper has a little over 200 more games coached than Sullivan, and the Lightning have had a splendid run with Cooper at the helm: two Stanley Cups, two other trips to the Finals, and another two trips to the Conference Finals, all while missing the playoffs just once, and twice he was a finalist for the Jack Adams for League’s best coach (for what it’s worth). Contrast that with Pittsburgh’s record with Sullivan: two Stanley Cups to match Cooper’s, but no other Cup Finals or Conference Finals appearances, nor any serious award consideration, and now two consecutive seasons of not making the playoffs. Sullivan has survived three general managers however, and it strikes me that his connection with his longtime veterans is keeping his seat from getting particularly hot. But how much longer can that last, especially if the Penguins continue to miss the playoffs?

What will prevent this Penguins team from winning the Stanley Cup in 2025?

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(Last year’s poll result: Goaltending, 44%: in fact: a little of everything)

Here’s another returning poll, another subjective one with a lot of moving parts. I pared off the “depth” aspect from the forward and defense answers for simplification purposes. Last year “health issues/organizational depth” had the second-most votes but wasn’t as obvious a factor as in some years, thanks mostly to the big players staying mostly healthy. Coaching, particularly where Todd Reirden was concerned, was a bigger issue than I think anybody was prepared to acknowledge at the beginning of the year. It’s an interesting question, lending some insight to what it feels like is the biggest issue with the Penguins currently.

Where do you see the Penguins in five years? (2029-30)

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(Last year’s poll result: Actively rebuilding/rebooting, 70%)

Right now, the only player on the current roster who is still under contract through the 2029-30 season is…Ryan Graves. Ouch! It seems more relevant to point out that most of the primary producers on today’s roster will very likely be elsewhere or retired in five years, which makes sense since most of those players are well into their 30s already. Most notably, there were no optimists in the room who felt good enough to think the Penguins would be Stanley Cup hopefuls in five years from now. But general manager Kyle Dubas does seem to be trying, more so than his two predecessors, to prepare for the future beyond those aging veterans. The only thing I can hope for is that they are not still mediocre.