Author Archives: PensPointsYourMom

Lord Stanley and Goalie Fatigue

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First things first, this post isn’t going to be funny or clever.   I almost just posted this information in the comments section.  But its an off-day and I’d like to be able to find it again.

Late last night I got curious about Stanley Cup winning goalies, and the number of games they played in the regular season.  So I went digging.  The past 20 goalies to win a Cup and their regular season games played are as follows:

95-96 Patrick Roy 39
96-97 Chris Osgood 47
97-98 Chris Osgood 64
98-99 Ed Belfour 61
99-00 Martin Brodeur 72
00-01 Patrick Roy 62
01-02 Dominik Hasek 65
02-03 Martin Brodeur 73
03-04 Nikolai Khabibulin 55
04-05 LOCKOUT
05-06 Cam Ward 28
06-07 Jean Sebastian Giguere 56
07-08 Chris Osgood 43
08-09 MAF 62
09-10 Antti Niemi 39
10-11 Tim Thomas 57
11-12 Jonathan Quick - 69
12-13 Corey Crawford 30 GP (52 adjusted for partial lockout season)
13-14 Jonathan Quick - 49
14-15 Corey Crawford Regular Season GP 57
15-16 Matt Murray 13

Note Crawford only played 30 games in 12-13 due to the partial lockout.  I’ve extrapolated that number to reflect the games he would have played, proportionally, in an 82 game season.

The average games played over 20 years for cup winning goalies is 53.

For last 20 goalies to win a cup, only eight played more than 60 games.  That’s hardly a definitive number at 40%.  But only 3 (15%) won the cup after playing more than 65 regular season games, and only 1 in 20 years not named Martin Brodeur.

Next I wanted to project where goalies where end up in GP at the end of this season.  ((TeamX Goalie GP/TeamXGP) x (TeamX remaining games)) +TeamXGP = projected GP for TeamX Goalie) Here is the current break down of projected games played:

Murray on pace - 45
Corey Crawford - 52
Price - 61
Rinne - 62
Gibson - 63
Holtby - 63
Dubnyk - 63
Rask   - 66
Mason  - 67
Martin Jones on pace for 69
Cam Talbot - 72
Bobrovsky  - 75

I didn’t include the Kings or the Blues because their goalie situations are a hot mess.

The point is this- in an effort to win now the Jackets and Oilers are pacing their goalies for the improbable.  Not to say a cup can’t be won with a goalie who played 70+ regular season games, its just to say after 65, the numbers don’t favor it.

Bring on Bob, bring on the Jackets.  After all, winning a regular season game against the Pens is their cup anyway.

 

 

Where Are They Now? Ray Shero Draft Pick Addition

angel-esposito

Based on a Cblog discussion with Rad and THE!66thDF I wanted to see how the Pens first round draft picks panned out.  Right up front, it’s clear that outside of the top 5 or so players in each draft there is no guarantee that a player will turn into a productive NHLer.

The primary metric involves games played and points scored.  That’s why we draft players, it’s apparently not why the Oilers draft players, but that’s a different article.  We want to get players who will soak up minutes and contribute, offensively or defensively, to the teams success.  I didn’t dig too deeply into playoff stats because for most of these players it didn’t ever come to that.

On one hand the draft is an opportunity to get cheap talent in a salary cap regime.  It’s difficult to have sustained success without finding some bargain players, and the draft is the primary means teams use to fulfill that end. Don’t believe me?  Just sign every player to a 6 year 5 million AAV deal and ask Columbus.

On the other hand, the draft is little bit of luck.  And there is no guarantee that a player drafted high will be a good choice as compared to those below him, looking at you Nail. Continue reading →