Another game, another blown lead for the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday night, as they once again held the initiative of a two goal lead into the third period against the Tampa Bay Lightning. In his return from injury, Tampa’s Brayden Point got the comeback started for the Lightning at 5:41 in the third period, followed by Anthony Cirelli’s game-tying goal seven minutes later. Then in overtime, Point tucked home a wraparound with Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry off on another planet to seal the 3-2 win for Tampa Bay. Despite the hiccup in overtime, Jarry performed almost exactly up to expectations according to MoneyPuck, allowing the three goals on an expected goals against of 2.989, so I guess we haven’t got much to complain about? At this point the best we can hope for from Jarry is for him to not get shelled, and maybe the offense will give him a little more of a break, but the latter was not the case against the Bolts. In fact, Pittsburgh has not managed more than two goals in five of the last seven games, and they’ve lost all of those while winning the other two in which they did. Additionally, we’re still on “Sidney Crosby’s 600th career goal” watch; few things are as frustrating as waiting for Crosby to crack his milestones.

Regardless of your perspective (whether you believe the Penguins should be a playoff team or a draft lottery team), the overtime loss against Tampa Bay continues the agony of not knowing whether Pittsburgh is going in one direction of the other. Despite their 7-10-4 record, the situation in the Eastern Conference is such that their 18 points is (as of this writing) just one point out of a Wild Card spot in the conference. They are currently tied with the Philadelphia Flyers for 9th place in the East with the New York Islanders and the Boston Bruins (who just fired their head coach) tied for that second Wild Card seed. It is also true however that the Penguins are just two points out of last place in the conference as well, one point ahead of Buffalo and Ottawa and two ahead of Columbus, Detroit and Montreal. When you measure using points percentage, Pittsburgh is sixth-worst in the NHL. Nevertheless, they hypothetically could go in any direction, even if one direction (up) is much further away than the other.

So, yes, if one looked only at the standings and ignored everything else, one could be convinced that the Penguins have suffered a early-season bump in the road and could easily course correct themselves into a playoff spot from which anything could happen! However, if you look at the details, this Pittsburgh team is not a team to be taken seriously at all. They have the worst goal differential in the NHL: their offense is average but they have allowed the most goals in the League by 12. They are among the worst teams in the League defensively in terms of allowing shot attempts, shots-on-goal, expected goals, and scoring chances. That on its own wouldn’t necessarily be a problem if their goaltending also wasn’t towards the bottom of the NHL as well. (The New York Rangers are very similar to the Penguins in being high-event at both ends of the ice, but their shooting percentage is 3% better and their save percentage is 4% better, and as a result they have a +20 goal differential and the fifth-best record in the League.) It’s tough to make up for so many issues throughout the team in the middle of the season, and then you have to compete with teams that are already well built and will only figure to fortify themselves as the season wears on.

I guess the positive spin to all of this is that Pittsburgh can still “pick” one direction or another. There’s still roughly three-quarters of a season left to go and there could indeed be some surprises to be had if the offense catches on fire, the defense becomes more effective, and/or if the goaltending better holds the fort. (They might need two or even three of those things to go in their favor to be a team to be taken more seriously. And stop blowing leads!) Or if they continue to hang around in the bottom of the standings, they can focus on trading what they can and preparing for a decent draft this summer and next summer (starting with potentially a top 5-10 pick this June) while also having a load of cap space to spend this summer, if they wish. But the one thing the Penguins cannot afford to do is continue to linger in the middle; it’s a road to nowhere, and they are at a point where they have to be getting somewhere.

A back-to-back against a pair of Central Division foes starts tonight with the Penguins pitted first against the team with the best record in the NHL, the Winnipeg Jets, followed tomorrow by the first visit to Pittsburgh by the Utah Hockey Club. The Jets have been as scary as any team to start the season, roaring out to a 15-1 start (including a 6-3 win over the Penguins on October 20), but have lost two of their last three games. They’ve had a few days off to rest so they should be ready to smash the rest button all over Pittsburgh tonight. Utah (neè Arizona) has been off to a scattered start, but at 7-8-3 they are at least more on par with the Penguins than they had been as the Coyotes over the past however many seasons. I suspect this will be a tough set for Pittsburgh to get more than a point out of, and at this point it would be admirable if they could.