Pleasant midsommar to you all! I hope you’re enjoying the weather, even if it is extremely hot, extremely smoky, and/or extremely wet. We were warned that this would happen, and since “we” don’t seem too keen to do anything about it, I suppose we’ll all just have to suffer until we don’t have to anymore! (Positivity blog!)

With the Entry Draft resolutely in our rear-view mirror, I can now present to you the results of my Mediocrity Project update for the 2023 offseason. In case your recollection is not so hot, here’s the link to the inaugural edition of this feature. First, let’s look at the general groupings. Each team is listed by their total Mediocrity Score (MS), the methodology for which is in that link I just provided.

The Good (+1 team): Tampa Bay (+11), Vegas (+10), Carolina (+9),
Boston (+9), Florida (+8), Dallas (+7), Colorado (+7), Toronto (+7)

The (Positively) Mediocre (-2 teams): Edmonton (+5),
Minnesota (+5), Pittsburgh (+5), NY Islanders (+4), St. Louis (+4)

The (Negatively) Mediocre (-2 teams): Nashville (+2), Washington (+2), Winnipeg (+1),
Calgary (0), NY Rangers (-2), Vancouver (-2), Los Angeles (-4)

The Bad (+3 teams): Montreal (-6), Philadelphia (-6), San Jose (-6), Columbus (-8), Ottawa (-9),
Detroit (-9), Seattle (-8), Buffalo (-10), Arizona (-10), New Jersey (-11), Chicago (-12), Anaheim (-14)

As a reminder, these groupings are by feel, which may put off some people, but my feelings are tied to the metrics and I think they’re grouped fairly well. The teams in the Good group are the ones that are close to winning a Stanley Cup, either if they have recently (which is the case for four of those teams) or they seem probable to in the near future. Conversely, one may look at the Bad group and see a bunch of teams that are not on the path to winning a championship quite yet, but it may not take long for some of those teams (like Columbus, Ottawa, Detroit, Seattle, Buffalo, and New Jersey) to start climbing the ranks.

This being the second official year I’m doing this project (I have three straight years of data, plus another couple of years prior that I’m slowly putting together), I can also address the trends of how teams are doing. Twenty-six teams saw their MS change, thirteen each either positively or negatively, and naturally some teams are improving considerably while others are regressing. Let’s highlight the teams that have moved from one group to another; the numbers in parentheses are the change in MS from last year to this year.

From (Positively) Mediocre to Good: Carolina (+5), Florida (+3), Dallas (+3)
From Bad to (Negatively) Mediocre: Los Angeles (+4)

From Good to (Positively) Mediocre: St. Louis (-3)
From Good to (Negatively) Mediocre: Washington (-6)
From (Positively) Mediocre to (Negatively) Mediocre: Nashville (-1)
From (Negatively) Mediocre to Bad: Montreal (-1), Philadelphia (-4), San Jose (-4), Columbus (-4)

Here are some observations:

• There’s a ton of Bad teams, more than a third of the League, but five of eight holdovers from last season improved (including Seattle, which is perhaps unfairly categorized as Bad given that last year was just their second in existence). Kudos to the Kings for getting themselves out of the bottom tier; their next few seasons should see further improvement!
• More to the point, seven mediocre teams improved from last year while eight regressed, but while three that improved moved up a category, five that regressed moved down. So, the teams that are seemingly outside of the championship discussion are perhaps wisely deciding to head down the standings in the hopes of improving their prospect pool and thus their future.
• The Capitals have plummeted two groups after holding steady for the past two offseasons. The rebuild in Washington is not far away.
• The Bruins are still Good. In fact, their MS hasn’t changed at all since the 2021 offseason (at the earliest). I am curious to see how long that lasts. (Not really though.)
• It appears to me that the Rangers are plateauing, which, for a team that drafted second and first in consecutive years and (to date) appear to have botched those picks, is bad news. While they are the most improved team in the League from two offseasons ago, they still don’t seem to be serious championship contenders.
• I don’t think it needs to be said at this point, but the Hurricanes are in danger of missing their opportunity to win the Cup. Their MS improved the most of any team from last offseason, and now they are categorized as Good. They’re not far now, they just have to push a little harder.
• The Devils are sneakretly (my portmanteau of sneak and secret(ly), feel free to use it) hiding in the Bad group. Jack Hughes drops off their metrics next offseason, and if they add another playoff appearance this coming year that’ll add five points (at least) to their score. Immediately they’ll be on the cusp of a Mediocre group, so how successful they are will dictate just how high they’ll climb.
• On a related topic, and parallel to those concerned with the Penguins (that would probably be all of us), Pittsburgh is now second in the Metro Division in terms of this offseason’s MS, but they’re obviously not improving in that regard. Going by the change in MS from last year, Pittsburgh is fifth in the division. I don’t expect them to keep missing the playoffs, but things will naturally change, and drastically, if that should occur.

Finally, here’s the list of teams that are still Mediocre:

(Positively) Mediocre: Edmonton, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, NY Islanders
(Negatively) Mediocre: Winnipeg, Calgary, NY Rangers, Vancouver