Usually when a team gives up five goals against, they’re pretty fortunate to come away from that game with a win. Indeed, prior to Thursday’s 6-5 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings, the Pittsburgh Penguins had only managed two other wins this season when allowing five goals or more: February 25, a 7-6 win over the Philadelphia Flyers; and a 6-5 win against the Boston Bruins in overtime on January 4. Fourteen other such games this season have been losses. The Penguins also had two goal leads twice against the Red Wings and gave them back, and ended up playing in overtime (which is not a good thing for Pittsburgh). Long story short, they probably don’t want to do that again, especially at such a critical time in the season and against a rival for a Wild Card spot. The Penguins had a great chance to put Detroit behind the eight ball when it comes to a playoff spot, but for now they get to hang in there for a little longer.
Either way, people are starting to wonder when and if it’s a good time to get Tristan Jarry back in goal. Jarry hasn’t played since March 24, hasn’t played a full game since March 19, and hasn’t won a game he started since March 14. It’s a bad look for a guy who was given a five-year, ~$5.4M/year contract extension this offseason; he’s being paid like a starter but he has a history of a second-half swoon and this year has been no different. Meanwhile Alex Nedeljkovic, brought in this past offseason on a one year deal, has been great for Pittsburgh, has certainly played better than expected and for certain has had better results than Jarry. The Penguins have the best record in the NHL since they have stuck with Nedeljkovic, and with every point being desperately important, it’s easy to see why head coach Mike Sullivan would keep Ned in the crease until he has no choice. Nedeljkovic’s performance (as well as the looming spectre of Joel Blomqvist) is making many see Jarry as expendable.
I would pump the brakes on that a little as this is not exactly a Marc-Andre Fleury/Matt Murray situation à la 2016-2017. Whereas Murray was making a genuine case on his own to be given the starting role over the Penguins’ longtime #1 goaltender, Nedeljkovic’s success has had a lot more to do with how his teammates have been playing in front of him. For whatever reason, Pittsburgh has played lower event hockey with Nedeljkovic in goal (fewer shot attempts for, fewer shot attempts against, lower expected goals against) and they have generally controlled the proceedings less with Jarry in goal than Ned. Simplifying the matter a lot, the Penguins’ shooting percentage is almost 3% better when Nedeljkovic plays versus Jarry while Jarry’s save percentage is 1% worse. That’s pretty stark and begs the question if there is something mentally that goes through the players’ heads when one goaltender is playing versus another. It’s not a healthy situation one way or another, but I cannot deny that putting Jarry back in goal at this point is a risky bet.
Until their rivals start losing, Pittsburgh has to keep the pedal to the metal. They are in the driver’s seat for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, and maybe they’d be satisfied with that as it appears likely they would face either Carolina or the Rangers in the first round (and I fancy their chances for an upset if I’m being honest). If they can catch up to the Islanders for third in the Metropolitan Division then their first round opponent would be either of those teams anyway, but the Islanders are three points ahead of the Penguins with the same number of games played. Tonight could also be a playoff preview, as the Bruins are three points behind the Rangers for first in the Eastern Conference and Boston has a game in hand as well. Meanwhile the Penguins have three teams breathing down their neck, with Washington and Detroit just one point behind them (and the Flyers, LOL, but they are one game closer to the end of the season). It’s probably not a good time to play around with the meta, just keep rolling along and maybe at some point between now and the regular season finale Sullivan will have the luxury of making risky decisions.
The most important non-Penguins game to watch today is also the earliest, as the Islanders head to Manhattan for a 12:30PM matinee with the Rangers. The Blueshirts have the best home record in the NHL so perhaps they will be more keen to avenge their loss against the Isles on Tuesday and avoid their first three-game losing streak in three months after an embarrassing 4-1 loss hosting the Flyers on Thursday. The Rangers haven’t lost consecutive games at home all season, so it really stands to reason that Pittsburgh could have an opportunity to catch up to the Islanders, should the Rangers do their jobs this afternoon.
The two teams chasing Pittsburgh, Detroit and Washington, both play blue-and-white teams today, with the Capitals hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning at 5:30PM Eastern and the Red Wings visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:00PM. Both the Leafs and Bolts are more or less stuck in their spots at this point so it doesn’t seem like they’ll have much to play for beyond the typical late-season stat-padding and awards-chasing for Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov. Meanwhile the Caps and Wings need to keep winning if they have any hope of eclipsing the Penguins in the standings (which they need to do because Pittsburgh holds the key tiebreaker in regulation wins).
The Flyers also play the Devils today. With one more game played than the teams they are chasing, Philadelphia needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They can get lost for all I care!